The unforeseen impact of tariffs on the restaurant industry

One of our potential customers was at an offsite last week. He had indicated to me that by the end of the week, he would know whether or not we would have a green light for our data analysis project. Although he promised to call me this coming week, I couldn’t wait. I figured I’d text him on Friday at the end of the day so I didn’t have to think about it all weekend.

He responded immediately saying that the executive team was in ‘all hands on deck’ mode because of the announcement on Friday that the US would be implementing tariffs on February 4th. The concern about how the tariffs would impact their business may actually accelerate our path to a project and commercial agreement. Turns out that the sudden implementation of tariffs creates a great deal of uncertainty.

It got me to thinking how the tariffs may impact the restaurant industry. The most obvious, direct impact will be that ingredients imported from Mexico and Canada will become significantly more expensive. But it turns out that tariffs can also disrupt global supply chains. Demand for products from Mexico, for example, may shift to other countries that are not subject to tariffs. Sudden demand from countries with limited supply or bottlenecked import channels will likely cause shortages and delays.

Restaurants will inevitably have to adjust purchasing, menu design and prices accordingly.

I’m curious to hear from restaurant companies that are thinking about this. It’s something that High Margin is looking at very closely.

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